ComScore predictions versus Google performance actuals
One of my favorite bloggers, Paul Kedrosky, writes about the recent positive quarter by Google: Why Was Everyone Wrong-sided on Google?.
He summarizes:
- Comscore data had people convinced that first-quarter paid click data was disastrous
- It
just made sense that online ad spending would be cut, especially given
financial services dependency, and Google has to be hurt if/when that
happens - Google missed (sort of last quarter), and everyone assumed the wheel had come off and stayed off
I wrote about the problems with panel-based measurement in a much earlier blog (November 2006) titled Are you using Alexa numbers? (Probably).
In it, I discuss several problems, some which specifically apply to Alexa, and some which apply to comScore as well. Then I go through the different ways that these panel-based measurement providers try to rebalance their data, using extra sources like ISP-level info, normalizing based on global demographic info, and using random-digit dial (RDD) to collect data. I hadn’t read it in a while, but thought I’d dig it up for people who haven’t seen it.
Net/net, while many analysts missed their mark on Google’s projections, let me leave with a related thought:
What does it mean that these same, somewhat flawed approaches are driving the decisions of media buyers in a $40B+ global advertising industry?
:-)
PS. Get new updates/analysis on tech and startupsI write a high-quality, weekly newsletter covering what's happening in Silicon Valley, focused on startups, marketing, and mobile.
