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Dear readers, I have moved to Substack and I will be writing here from now on:
In the meantime, I will leave up for posterity. Enjoy!

Wanna bet? In 1 year, will Facebook be bigger? Or will MySpace?

UPDATE: I lost. And bought Arjun a new iPhone. Congrats Arjun!

The bet: Which social network will be bigger?
Oh this will be fun ;-) My friend Arjun (ex-Amazon, currently at Zillow) and I had the following conversation when we were talking about widget development:

Andrew: why not be more excited about the myspace integration possibilities? that’s like a 5X bigger ecoysystem

Arjun: yuck.

Andrew: ??

Arjun: myspace already has too many issues
their UI is so cluttered that it would be impossible

Andrew: i think you might just be techno-elitist

Arjun: facebook is already getting cluttered

Andrew: which biases your business calculations

Arjun: yeah, that’s probably true..

Andrew: i mean, are you separating your business evaluation and your personal evaluation?

Arjun: but myspace is dead, man.

Andrew: thats so wrong lol
myspace is growing super fast

Arjun: facebook will be growing faster
dude, i’ll bet you that in 1 year facebook will be larger than myspace

Andrew: holy shit
i’ll take that bet
what are we betting?

Arjun: haha, are you serious?

Andrew: absolutely

Arjun: anything, what do you want
cash, fame

Andrew: iphone

We later decided that the evaluation function would be:

Comscore numbers for 1 year from now, July 23rd 2008 12:28am
Monthly unique users for MySpace and Facebook

The current snapshot of numbers
And for those that are curious, here’s the current numbers stolen off a post by Eric @ VentureBeat: MySpace is over 2X larger (109MM instead of 47MM), the Facebook growth in the last month was 22% whereas MySpace’s was about 4.3%. If this rate were to continue, then Facebook would pass MySpace in about 7 months.

I’m betting that the growth slows considerably – in fact, I might have even taken this bet out to 18 months or more, whereas Arjun is betting that it’ll continue or accelerate.

What do you guys think? Which side of the bet would you take?

UPDATE: Couple more numbers: MySpace vs Facebook: MySpace declares Victory from Mashable and also Top social networks for engagement from Jeremy Liew

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